Today’s headlines are full of negativity. Oil price is tanking, China’s boom is over, and Target is closing yet another dozen locations.

Businesses, big and small, are laying off employees or announcing bankruptcy, while a select few are announcing massive growth and new products.

Is this a matter of changing tides? Luck, perhaps? Not necessarily.

There are many ways you can run a successful business and still avoid getting jostled by new competitors and unexpected crises.

How to Expect the Unexpected, Even if You’re Not Clairvoyant

Look Back

Get a full history of your company. If you’ve been around awhile, look at its history for the past ten years. Examine the highs and lows of your business, seeking out the triggers that preceded each crisis you faced.

For instance, look at the last three times you didn’t hit projected revenue then examine the data as far back as six months before that. Is anything amiss? Did a supplier fall through? Did you have a logistic problem? Did someone resign? Find out what caused this problem and plan how you can prevent it next time around.

I know it’s hard, but you can’t run a successful business if you don’t analyze what you did wrong.

Create a Dedicated Response System

If you want to run a successful business, embrace risk management. Establish an early warning system that will alert you of potential problems as early as possible. This could come in the form of a series of alerts or reports, or a dedicated team of risk management specialists.

Besides, you don’t want employees acting on their own accord, when a crisis strikes, right? Bad decisions and PR nightmares are often the product panic. Train a few key members to notice potential risks, and make quick but sound decisions in a crisis.

Canvas for Local Threats, However Far Off It Seems

Businesses, on average, face at least three major external threats every 5 years.

Kodak, for instance, was once a major player in the technology industry because of its cameras. After a few decades of practically dominating the market, it was pushed aside by a new player: Nokia, when it came up with cell phones that doubled as cameras.

Kodak could’ve prevented their downfall, had they paid attention to trends—or at least jumped into the bandwagon when the first camera equipped cell phone was released.

Yes, it’s impossible to predict or see all external surprises early. Even the known Oracle, Warren Buffet, couldn’t predict every single rise and fall of the market. But there are warning signs you can watch out for. In fact, someone in your organization may already know of a potential threat but may not mention it for fear of being branded as negative or paranoid.

If you want to run a successful business, it’s your job as the leader to collect all these gossips and filter out the noise from the truly actionable data. Then act on it and see where it leads you.

Learn How to Destroy Your Company

Dr. Peter Diamandis, Founder and Chairman of X Prize Foundation, suggests rounding up the brightest and most innovative employees in your company.

Their assignment, if they choose to accept it, is to come up with different ways to bring your company down.

Let that thought sink in for a moment.

It doesn’t matter who these people are—whether they’re in your mailroom or middle management. Select people based on their creativity and analytical skills, not based on their position.

Give them a week to come up with an idea, event or product that could pose a serious threat to your business. That could be in the form of a new competitor, data breach, or change in consumer habits. Whatever it is, they have to explain how exactly it will affect the company and why. Bonus points if they can propose a way to handle it.

© 2015 Incedo Group, LLC